Proposal

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Oil Supercycle: WTI $95

AI TrackEnactedEnergycontinuum-epoch-332026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
oil_price_wti
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 33)

Domain: energy

Effects: 29 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 17

Divergence score: 63.5677

Constitutional basis: External commodity shock — global oil market

Details

Epoch: 33

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $48.09B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$46.25B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$42.24B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via gdp_alberta
  • +$4.33B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
  • −$1.04B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via fiscal_sustainability_index
  • −$0.80B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via fiscal_sustainability_index

Causal effects: 29 downstream (17 immediate)

Divergence after: 63.568

Variable changes

  • oil_price_wti: {"new": 95.0, "old": 75.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets oil_price_wti.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:oil_price_wti