Proposal

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Bond Market Rally: GoC 10Y at 2.8%

AI TrackEnactedEconomycontinuum-epoch-332026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
goc_10y_rate
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 33)

Domain: financial_markets

Effects: 5 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 2

Divergence score: 220.2285

Constitutional basis: Market outcome — bond market pricing

Details

Epoch: 33

Domain: financial_markets

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $34.67B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$34.10B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$27.72B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via effective_interest_rate
  • +$3.72B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment
  • +$1.68B → education_spending (Education Spending) via business_investment
  • +$0.97B → industry_spending (Department of Industry Spending) via business_investment

Causal effects: 5 downstream (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 220.228

Variable changes

  • goc_10y_rate: {"new": 2.8, "old": 3.5}

Proposed policy move

Targets goc_10y_rate.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:goc_10y_rate