Proposal

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Private Healthcare Creep: 35%

AI TrackEnactedHealthcarecontinuum-epoch-392026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
private_healthcare_share
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 39)

Domain: healthcare

Effects: 4 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 2

Divergence score: 301.1392

Constitutional basis: Provincial healthcare jurisdiction (s.92), Canada Health Act tension

Details

Epoch: 39

Domain: healthcare

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $6.48B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$6.47B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$5.58B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via pharmacare_coverage_gap_population
  • +$0.90B → employer_drug_benefit_cost (Annual Employer Drug Benefit Expenditure) via private_healthcare_share
  • −$0.01B → pharmacare_federal_budget_remaining (Pharmacare Federal Budget Remaining) via pharmacare_coverage_gap_population

Causal effects: 4 downstream (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 301.139

Variable changes

  • private_healthcare_share: {"new": 35.0, "old": 30.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets private_healthcare_share.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:private_healthcare_share