Proposal

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Silver Tsunami: Seniors Hit 9.5M

AI TrackEnactedEconomycontinuum-epoch-452026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
senior_population
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 45)

Domain: demographics

Effects: 1 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 0

Divergence score: 310.4061

Constitutional basis: Demographic trend — not policy

Details

Epoch: 45

Domain: demographics

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $8.29B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$8.10B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$5.38B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via senior_population
  • +$2.39B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via healthcare_spending
  • +$0.45B → hospital_spending (Hospital Services Spending) via healthcare_spending
  • −$0.17B → preventable_chronic_disease_cost (Annual Cost of Preventable Chronic Disease) via healthcare_spending

Causal effects: 1 downstream (0 immediate)

Divergence after: 310.406

Variable changes

  • senior_population: {"new": 9.5, "old": 8.3}

Proposed policy move

Targets senior_population.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:senior_population