Proposal

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Fiscal Pressure Points: Revenue + Transfers

AI TrackEnactedEconomycontinuum-epoch-512026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
import_volume
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 51)

Domain: fiscal_policy

Effects: 49 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 35

Divergence score: 1508.6175

Constitutional basis: Various federal fiscal authorities

Details

Epoch: 51

Domain: fiscal_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $19.62B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$9.46B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$27.95B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
  • +$6.50B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via transfers_to_provinces
  • +$5.52B → direct_program_spending (Direct Program Expenses) via budgetary_balance
  • +$2.70B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via quebec_federal_transfers

Causal effects: 49 downstream (35 immediate)

Divergence after: 1508.618

Variable changes

  • import_volume: {"new": 115.0, "old": 100.0}
  • seasonal_employment: {"new": 9.5, "old": 8.5}
  • population_growth_rate: {"new": 2.8, "old": 3.2}
  • transfers_to_provinces: {"new": 120.0, "old": 110.8}
  • carbon_pricing_revenues: {"new": 9.0, "old": 6.2}

Proposed policy move

Targets import_volume.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:import_volume
  • RIPPLE:seasonal_employment
  • RIPPLE:population_growth_rate
  • RIPPLE:transfers_to_provinces
  • RIPPLE:carbon_pricing_revenues