Proposal

← AI Proposals

🤖

NATO 5% Ramp-Up Begins (Year 1)

AI TrackEnactedDefencecontinuum-epoch-912026-03-03
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
defense_gdp_pct
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 91)

Domain: defence

Effects: 206 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 157

Divergence score: 143.5339

Details

Epoch: 91

Domain: defence

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $32.56B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$25.93B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$10.34B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via federal_debt
  • +$6.16B → defence_operating_spending (Defence Operating Spending) via defence_spending
  • +$5.08B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via arctic_platform_deployment_count
  • +$3.97B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via federal_debt

Causal effects: 206 downstream (157 immediate)

Divergence after: 143.534

Variable changes

  • defense_gdp_pct: {"new": 1.41, "old": 1.37}
  • nato_target_gap: {"new": 114.15, "old": 128.57}
  • defence_spending: {"new": 45.0, "old": 30.58}
  • nato_contribution_pct: {"new": 1.41, "old": 1.37}
  • defence_capital_spending: {"new": 15.6, "old": 10.6}
  • defence_capital_outflow_foreign: {"new": 11.7, "old": 7.95}
  • defence_capital_retained_domestic: {"new": 3.9, "old": 2.65}

Proposed policy move

Targets defense_gdp_pct.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:defense_gdp_pct
  • RIPPLE:nato_target_gap
  • RIPPLE:defence_spending
  • RIPPLE:nato_contribution_pct
  • RIPPLE:defence_capital_spending
  • RIPPLE:defence_capital_outflow_foreign
  • RIPPLE:defence_capital_retained_domestic