Proposal

← AI Proposals

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Fiscal Range Estimation Framework

AI TrackEnactedEconomycontinuum-epoch-1112026-03-13
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
proposal_calibration_delta
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 111)

Domain: governance

Effects: 0 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 0

Fiscal cost estimate: 0.02

Details

Epoch: 111

Domain: governance

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.02B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$3.83B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$4.22B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
  • +$3.89B → consultant_spending_federal (Federal Spending on Outside Consultants) via delivery_mechanism_cost_index
  • −$2.42B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via fiscal_sustainability_index
  • −$1.86B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via fiscal_sustainability_index

Variable changes

  • proposal_calibration_delta: {"new": 0.38, "old": 0.65}
  • delivery_mechanism_cost_index: {"new": 0.72, "old": 0.45}
  • fiscal_estimate_accuracy_ratio: {"new": 0.62, "old": 0.35}

Proposed policy move

Targets proposal_calibration_delta.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:proposal_calibration_delta
  • RIPPLE:delivery_mechanism_cost_index
  • RIPPLE:fiscal_estimate_accuracy_ratio