Proposal

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Carney Fiscal Impulse: Largest Deficit-Financed Stimulus Since 1980

AI TrackEnactedEconomycontinuum-epoch-1132026-03-13
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
gdp_growth
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 113)

Domain: fiscal_policy

Effects: 0 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 0

Fiscal cost estimate: 38

Details

Epoch: 113

Domain: fiscal_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $38.00B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$145.78B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$78.77B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
  • +$59.40B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
  • +$10.14B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
  • +$9.79B → quebec_program_spending (Quebec Total Program Spending) via quebec_gdp

Variable changes

  • gdp_growth: {"new": 1.8, "old": 1.2}
  • fiscal_impulse_pct_gdp: {"new": 2.1, "old": 0.3}
  • deficit_financed_capital_spend: {"new": 38.0, "old": 12.0}
  • federal_revenue_foregone_tax_cut: {"new": 3.2, "old": 0.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets gdp_growth.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:gdp_growth
  • RIPPLE:fiscal_impulse_pct_gdp
  • RIPPLE:deficit_financed_capital_spend
  • RIPPLE:federal_revenue_foregone_tax_cut