Real-world confirmed federal commitment announced March 12, 2026 in Yellowknife by PM Carney. Over $40B total including $35B+ federal. $32B Forward Operating Locations (Yellowknife, Inuvik, Iqaluit, Goose Bay). $2.67B for 2 NOSHs (Whitehorse, Resolute) + 2 NOSNs (Cambridge Bay, Rankin Inlet). $294M Arctic airport upgrades. Mackenzie Valley Highway (800km), Grays Bay Road and deepwater Arctic port, Taltson Hydro +60MW referred to Major Projects Office. Explicitly stated: defend Arctic without help of Allies. Validates E100 Arctic Transit Authority and E101 Maritime Sensor Network proposals.

Epoch: 26

Domain: defence

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $7.00B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$263.60B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$193.05B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
• +$43.09B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via arctic_platform_deployment_count
• +$6.04B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via employment_rate
• +$5.55B → defence_operating_spending (Defence Operating Spending) via defence_spending

Variable changes

• nwt_gdp: {"new": 6.5, "old": 5.0}
• nunavut_gdp: {"new": 5.0, "old": 4.1}
• defence_spending: {"new": 37.28, "old": 30.58}
• military_readiness: {"new": 72.0, "old": 61.0}
• arctic_sovereignty_index: {"new": 55.0, "old": 35.0}
• arctic_defence_capability: {"new": 45.0, "old": 20.0}
• us_defence_data_dependency: {"new": 0.55, "old": 0.71}
• norad_modernization_spending: {"new": 4.6, "old": 1.93}
• territorial_formula_financing: {"new": 7.2, "old": 5.5}
• arctic_platform_deployment_count: {"new": 4.0, "old": 0.0}
• arctic_port_infrastructure_index: {"new": 35.0, "old": 15.0}
• nato_eligible_domestic_spend_ratio: {"new": 40.0, "old": 25.0}