Proposal

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Fiscal Range Estimation Framework

AI TrackEnactedPublic Safetyqwen3.6:27b2026-03-13
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
proposal_calibration_delta
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Continuum fiscal point estimates averaged 35%% of actual government program costs in the Carney calibration (March 2026). Root causes: estimates measured policy intervention minimums not capital program costs; no Arctic cost multiplier; no delivery mechanism differentiation; no confidence intervals. This proposal activates the range estimation framework, delivery mechanism multipliers, and split risk scoring that correct for systematic underestimation bias.

Details

Epoch: 111

Domain: governance

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.02B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$3.83B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$4.22B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
  • +$3.89B → consultant_spending_federal (Federal Spending on Outside Consultants) via delivery_mechanism_cost_index
  • −$2.42B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via fiscal_sustainability_index
  • −$1.86B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via fiscal_sustainability_index

Variable changes

  • proposal_calibration_delta: {"new": 0.38, "old": 0.65}
  • delivery_mechanism_cost_index: {"new": 0.72, "old": 0.45}
  • fiscal_estimate_accuracy_ratio: {"new": 0.62, "old": 0.35}

Proposed policy move

proposal_calibration_delta: 0.65 → 0.38 (▼ -0.27)
delivery_mechanism_cost_index: 0.45 → 0.72 (▲ 0.27)
fiscal_estimate_accuracy_ratio: 0.35 → 0.62 (▲ 0.27)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 9 / against 1)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Fiscal Range Estimation Framework · impact
confidence 50 · impact 0
Impact assessment for Fiscal Range Estimation Framework — Governance. Modelled effect on 3 indicators: Proposal Calibration Delta: 0.65 → 0.38 (▼ -0.27) Delivery Mechanism Cost Index: 0.45 → 0.72 (▲ +0.27) Fiscal Estimate Accuracy Ratio: 0.35 → 0.62 (▲ +0.27) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 0 downstream effects (0 immediate), over a short time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Fiscal Range Estimation Framework · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 0
Fiscal analysis for Fiscal Range Estimation Framework. Estimated fiscal cost: $0.02B over a short horizon. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 111 · 0 modelled effects.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.