Single-proposal sequential activation fails to model the Carney pattern: a new mandate or external sovereignty shock activates a cluster of deferred proposals simultaneously, producing investment announcements 7-11x larger than any single modelled intervention. The policy_bundle_id grouping and political_activation_probability variable enable the simulation to model bundled activation events.

Epoch: 112

Domain: governance

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.01B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$0.00B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Variable changes

• arctic_sovereignty_index: {"new": 58.0, "old": 34.0}
• us_defence_data_dependency: {"new": 0.55, "old": 0.71}
• policy_bundle_activation_rate: {"new": 0.45, "old": 0.12}
• political_activation_probability: {"new": 0.55, "old": 0.28}