Proposal

← AI Proposals

🤖

Political Bundling and Activation Model

AI TrackEnactedPublic Safetyqwen3.6:27b2026-03-13
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
arctic_sovereignty_index
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Single-proposal sequential activation fails to model the Carney pattern: a new mandate or external sovereignty shock activates a cluster of deferred proposals simultaneously, producing investment announcements 7-11x larger than any single modelled intervention. The policy_bundle_id grouping and political_activation_probability variable enable the simulation to model bundled activation events.

Details

Epoch: 112

Domain: governance

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.01B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$0.00B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Variable changes

  • arctic_sovereignty_index: {"new": 58.0, "old": 34.0}
  • us_defence_data_dependency: {"new": 0.55, "old": 0.71}
  • policy_bundle_activation_rate: {"new": 0.45, "old": 0.12}
  • political_activation_probability: {"new": 0.55, "old": 0.28}

Proposed policy move

arctic_sovereignty_index: 34 → 58 (▲ 24)
us_defence_data_dependency: 0.71 → 0.55 (▼ -0.16)
policy_bundle_activation_rate: 0.12 → 0.45 (▲ 0.33)
political_activation_probability: 0.28 → 0.55 (▲ 0.27)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 9 / against 1)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Political Bundling and Activation Model · impact
confidence 50 · impact 0
Impact assessment for Political Bundling and Activation Model — Governance. Modelled effect on 4 indicators: Arctic Sovereignty Index: 34 → 58 (▲ +24.00) Us Defence Data Dependency: 0.71 → 0.55 (▼ -0.16) Policy Bundle Activation Rate: 0.12 → 0.45 (▲ +0.33) Political Activation Probability: 0.28 → 0.55 (▲ +0.27) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 0 downstream effects (0 immediate), over a short t
Fiscal Analysis: Political Bundling and Activation Model · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 0
Fiscal analysis for Political Bundling and Activation Model. Estimated fiscal cost: $0.01B over a short horizon. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 112 · 0 modelled effects.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.