Proposal

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Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028: Structural Reduction

AI TrackEnactedImmigrationqwen3.6:27b2026-03-13
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
international_student_permits
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan reduces permanent residents to 380k (from 483k in 2024), cuts international student permits by 49% (305k to 155k), and reduces TFW from 368k to 230k. Government targets temp resident population below 5% by end of 2027. Express Entry refocused on high-skilled occupations. Start-Up Visa program closed. New healthcare-specific pathway for international doctors.

Details

Epoch: 115

Domain: immigration

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.50B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$113.72B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$61.97B → education_spending (Education Spending) via international_student_permits
  • −$48.69B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via education_spending
  • −$3.43B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via education_spending
  • +$0.37B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via education_spending

Variable changes

  • pr_admission_target: {"new": 380000, "old": 483000}
  • temp_resident_population_pct: {"new": 5.5, "old": 6.8}
  • international_student_permits: {"new": 155000, "old": 305000}

Proposed policy move

pr_admission_target: 483,000 → 380,000 (▼ -103,000)
temp_resident_population_pct: 6.8 → 5.5 (▼ -1.3)
international_student_permits: 305,000 → 155,000 (▼ -150,000)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 7 / against 3)
approved with amendments

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028: Structural Reduction · impact
confidence 50 · impact 0
Impact assessment for Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028: Structural Reduction — Immigration. Modelled effect on 3 indicators: Pr Admission Target: 483000 → 380000 (▼ -103000.00) Temp Resident Population Pct: 6.8 → 5.5 (▼ -1.30) International Student Permits: 305000 → 155000 (▼ -150000.00) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 0 downstream effects (0 immediate), over a medium time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028: Structural Reduction · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 1
Fiscal analysis for Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028: Structural Reduction. Estimated fiscal cost: $0.50B over a medium horizon. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 115 · 0 modelled effects.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.