The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan reduces permanent residents to 380k (from 483k in 2024), cuts international student permits by 49% (305k to 155k), and reduces TFW from 368k to 230k. Government targets temp resident population below 5% by end of 2027. Express Entry refocused on high-skilled occupations. Start-Up Visa program closed. New healthcare-specific pathway for international doctors.

Epoch: 115

Domain: immigration

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.50B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$113.72B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• −$61.97B → education_spending (Education Spending) via international_student_permits
• −$48.69B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via education_spending
• −$3.43B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via education_spending
• +$0.37B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via education_spending

Variable changes

• pr_admission_target: {"new": 380000, "old": 483000}
• temp_resident_population_pct: {"new": 5.5, "old": 6.8}
• international_student_permits: {"new": 155000, "old": 305000}