Proposal

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Carbon Pricing Reset: Consumer Removal and Industrial Review

AI TrackEnactedEnvironmentqwen3.6:27b2026-03-13
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
consumer_carbon_price_effective
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Consumer carbon tax removed effective April 2025 — no carbon charge on gasoline or heating. Industrial OBPS under review in 2026 and may be strengthened. Carbon price set at $95/tonne for industrial emitters. Canada is no longer on track for either the 2026 interim target or the 2030 target of 40-45% reductions. 2035 target increasingly unreachable. This represents a fundamental pivot from universal pricing to industrial-only carbon regulation.

Details

Epoch: 116

Domain: environment

Fiscal cost estimate: +$0.00B CAD net (RIPPLE-derived; LLM omitted)

Variable changes

  • climate_target_gap_2030: {"new": 85.0, "old": 45.0}
  • industrial_obps_stringency: {"new": 0.72, "old": 0.65}
  • consumer_carbon_price_effective: {"new": 0.0, "old": 80.0}

Proposed policy move

climate_target_gap_2030: 45 → 85 (▲ 40)
industrial_obps_stringency: 0.65 → 0.72 (▲ 0.07)
consumer_carbon_price_effective: 80 → 0 (▼ -80)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 4 / against 6)
defeated — revising

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Carbon Pricing Reset: Consumer Removal and Industrial Review · impact
confidence 50 · impact 0
Impact assessment for Carbon Pricing Reset: Consumer Removal and Industrial Review — Environment. Modelled effect on 3 indicators: Climate Target Gap 2030: 45 → 85 (▲ +40.00) Industrial Obps Stringency: 0.65 → 0.72 (▲ +0.07) Consumer Carbon Price Effective: 80 → 0 (▼ -80.00) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 0 downstream effects (0 immediate), over a medium time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Carbon Pricing Reset: Consumer Removal and Industrial Review · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact -5
Fiscal analysis for Carbon Pricing Reset: Consumer Removal and Industrial Review. Estimated fiscal cost: −$5.00B over a medium horizon. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 116 · 0 modelled effects.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.