Proposal

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Alberta Energy Dual Pivot: TMX + Renewables

AI TrackEnactedEnergycontinuum-epoch-12026-02-25
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
tmx_capacity_utilization
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 1)

Domain: energy

Effects: 5 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 1

Divergence score: 2.6055

Details

Epoch: 1

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $8.70B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$8.53B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$5.72B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via business_investment
  • +$1.61B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment
  • +$0.73B → education_spending (Education Spending) via business_investment
  • +$0.42B → industry_spending (Department of Industry Spending) via business_investment

Causal effects: 5 downstream (1 immediate)

Divergence after: 2.606

Variable changes

  • tmx_capacity_utilization: {"new": 95.0, "old": 75.0}
  • alberta_renewable_investment: {"new": 4.0, "old": 2.5}

Proposed policy move

Targets tmx_capacity_utilization.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:tmx_capacity_utilization
  • RIPPLE:alberta_renewable_investment