Proposal

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BoC Overnight Rate Increase (+100bp) [cdkp:0c255e90]

AI TrackEnactedEconomyqwen3.6:27b2026-03-29
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
boc_overnight_rate
AI intensity
3.33
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Standard central bank tightening scenario. Models the cascading effects of a 100 basis point increase to the Bank of Canada overnight rate on employment, housing, and growth.

Details

Epoch: 114

Domain: monetary_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $18.54B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$316.73B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$330.00B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via boc_overnight_rate
  • +$8.35B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via federal_debt
  • +$6.97B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via healthcare_system_capacity
  • +$3.21B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via federal_debt

Variable changes

  • boc_overnight_rate: {"new": 4.0, "old": 3.0}

Proposed policy move

boc_overnight_rate: 3 → 4 (▲ 1)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 3 / against 6)
defeated — revising

Analyses

Impact Assessment: BoC Overnight Rate Increase (+100bp) [cdkp:0c255e90] · impact
confidence 100 · impact 0
Impact assessment for BoC Overnight Rate Increase (+100bp) [cdkp:0c255e90] — Monetary Policy. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Boc Overnight Rate: 3 → 4 (▲ +1.00) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 0 downstream effects (0 immediate), over a immediate time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: BoC Overnight Rate Increase (+100bp) [cdkp:0c255e90] · fiscal
confidence 100 · impact 19
Fiscal analysis for BoC Overnight Rate Increase (+100bp) [cdkp:0c255e90]. Estimated fiscal cost: $18.54B over a immediate horizon. Constitutional basis: s.1, s.2, s.33. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 114 · 0 modelled effects.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.