Standard central bank tightening scenario. Models the cascading effects of a 100 basis point increase to the Bank of Canada overnight rate on employment, housing, and growth.

Epoch: 114

Domain: monetary_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $18.54B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$316.73B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• −$330.00B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via boc_overnight_rate
• +$8.35B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via federal_debt
• +$6.97B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via healthcare_system_capacity
• +$3.21B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via federal_debt

Variable changes

• boc_overnight_rate: {"new": 4.0, "old": 3.0}