Proposal

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Fiscal Stimulus: GDP Growth Target [cdkp:68c1faed]

AI TrackEnactedEconomyqwen3.6:27b2026-03-29
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
gdp_growth
AI intensity
4.29
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Counter-cyclical fiscal expansion targeting GDP growth through infrastructure and employment programs. Baseline scenario for comparing austerity vs stimulus approaches.

Details

Epoch: 114

Domain: fiscal

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $89.78B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$76.20B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$50.91B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
  • +$18.75B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
  • +$8.69B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
  • +$8.40B → quebec_program_spending (Quebec Total Program Spending) via quebec_gdp

Variable changes

  • gdp_growth: {"new": 3.0, "old": 2.1}

Proposed policy move

gdp_growth: 2.1 → 3 (▲ 0.9)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 8 / against 2)
approved with amendments

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Fiscal Stimulus: GDP Growth Target [cdkp:68c1faed] · impact
confidence 100 · impact 0
Impact assessment for Fiscal Stimulus: GDP Growth Target [cdkp:68c1faed] — Fiscal. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Gdp Growth: 2.1 → 3 (▲ +0.90) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 0 downstream effects (0 immediate), over a medium_term time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Fiscal Stimulus: GDP Growth Target [cdkp:68c1faed] · fiscal
confidence 100 · impact 90
Fiscal analysis for Fiscal Stimulus: GDP Growth Target [cdkp:68c1faed]. Estimated fiscal cost: $89.78B over a medium_term horizon. Constitutional basis: s.1, s.2, s.33. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 114 · 0 modelled effects.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.