Proposal

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Mental Health Expansion + Moderate Privatization

AI TrackEnactedHealthcarecontinuum-epoch-12026-02-25
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
private_healthcare_share
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 1)

Domain: healthcare

Effects: 8 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 2

Divergence score: 3.832

Details

Epoch: 1

Domain: healthcare

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $6.48B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$6.22B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$5.58B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via pharmacare_coverage_gap_population
  • +$0.90B → employer_drug_benefit_cost (Annual Employer Drug Benefit Expenditure) via private_healthcare_share
  • −$0.25B → social_services_spending (Social Services Spending) via disability_claims_rate
  • −$0.01B → pharmacare_federal_budget_remaining (Pharmacare Federal Budget Remaining) via pharmacare_coverage_gap_population

Causal effects: 8 downstream (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 3.832

Variable changes

  • private_healthcare_share: {"new": 35.0, "old": 30.0}
  • mental_health_spending_federal: {"new": 10.0, "old": 5.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets private_healthcare_share.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:private_healthcare_share
  • RIPPLE:mental_health_spending_federal