Normalize domestic energy costs across provinces by decoupling Alberta crude pricing from WTI benchmark for interprovincial sales. Models status quo, soft mandate, and hard mandate branches.

Epoch: 114

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $4.51B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$18.77B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• −$21.12B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via gdp_alberta
• −$2.16B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
• +$1.46B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
• +$0.93B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment

Variable changes

• oil_price_wti: {"new": 65.0, "old": 75.0}
• alberta_bitumen_royalties: {"new": 11.0, "old": 14.5}
• alberta_oil_export_volume: {"new": 3.5, "old": 3.9}
• provincial_energy_price_divergence_index: {"new": 120.0, "old": 180.0}