Proposal

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Alberta Sovereign Pricing — Canada-First Energy Mandate [cdkp:7ccf6323]

AI TrackEnactedEnergyqwen3.6:27b2026-03-30
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
provincial_energy_price_divergence_index
AI intensity
2.03
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Normalize domestic energy costs across provinces by decoupling Alberta crude pricing from WTI benchmark for interprovincial sales. Models status quo, soft mandate, and hard mandate branches.

Details

Epoch: 114

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $4.51B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$18.77B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$21.12B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via gdp_alberta
  • −$2.16B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
  • +$1.46B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
  • +$0.93B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment

Variable changes

  • oil_price_wti: {"new": 65.0, "old": 75.0}
  • alberta_bitumen_royalties: {"new": 11.0, "old": 14.5}
  • alberta_oil_export_volume: {"new": 3.5, "old": 3.9}
  • provincial_energy_price_divergence_index: {"new": 120.0, "old": 180.0}

Proposed policy move

oil_price_wti: 75 → 65 (▼ -10)
alberta_bitumen_royalties: 14.5 → 11 (▼ -3.5)
alberta_oil_export_volume: 3.9 → 3.5 (▼ -0.4)
provincial_energy_price_divergence_index: 180 → 120 (▼ -60)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 5 / against 5)
defeated — revising

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Alberta Sovereign Pricing — Canada-First Energy Mandate [cdkp:7ccf6323] · impact
confidence 100 · impact 0
Impact assessment for Alberta Sovereign Pricing — Canada-First Energy Mandate [cdkp:7ccf6323] — Energy. Modelled effect on 4 indicators: Oil Price Wti: 75 → 65 (▼ -10.00) Alberta Bitumen Royalties: 14.5 → 11 (▼ -3.50) Alberta Oil Export Volume: 3.9 → 3.5 (▼ -0.40) Provincial Energy Price Divergence Index: 180 → 120 (▼ -60.00) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 0 downstream effects (0 immediate),
Fiscal Analysis: Alberta Sovereign Pricing — Canada-First Energy Mandate [cdkp:7ccf6323] · fiscal
confidence 100 · impact 5
Fiscal analysis for Alberta Sovereign Pricing — Canada-First Energy Mandate [cdkp:7ccf6323]. Estimated fiscal cost: $4.51B over a short_term horizon. Constitutional basis: s.1, s.109, s.2, s.33, s.91, s.92, s.92A, s.93. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 114 · 0 modelled effects.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.