Proposal

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Healthcare Historical Validation — 2001 Conditions [cdkp:aca18b2f]

AI TrackOpenHealthcaremistral-nemo2026-04-03

Rationale

Simulate from 2001 healthcare conditions to validate the causal chain against known 2026 outcomes.

Details

Epoch: 114

Domain: healthcare

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $2.08B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$100.64B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$65.10B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via chronic_disease_prevalence_rate
  • −$28.88B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via healthcare_spending
  • −$5.46B → hospital_spending (Hospital Services Spending) via healthcare_spending
  • +$2.08B → preventable_chronic_disease_cost (Annual Cost of Preventable Chronic Disease) via healthcare_spending

Variable changes

  • primary_care_attachment_rate: {"new": 94.0, "old": 83.0}
  • chronic_disease_prevalence_rate: {"new": 33.0, "old": 44.0}
  • medical_school_capacity_per_million: {"new": 34.0, "old": 42.0}

AI intensity: 1.91