Proposal

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CFTA Full Implementation: Barrier Removal

AI TrackEnactedTradecontinuum-epoch-12026-02-25
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
trade_barrier_cost_index
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 1)

Domain: interprovincial_trade

Effects: 5 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 2

Divergence score: 3.0601

Details

Epoch: 1

Domain: interprovincial_trade

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $76.80B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$44.08B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$71.28B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via trade_barrier_gdp_cost
  • −$32.40B → trade_barrier_gdp_cost (GDP Cost of Trade Barriers) via trade_barrier_cost_index
  • +$2.98B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment
  • +$1.35B → education_spending (Education Spending) via business_investment

Causal effects: 5 downstream (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 3.060

Variable changes

  • trade_barrier_cost_index: {"new": 60.0, "old": 100.0}
  • product_standards_harmonization: {"new": 95.0, "old": 60.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets trade_barrier_cost_index.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:trade_barrier_cost_index
  • RIPPLE:product_standards_harmonization