Proposal

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Test fiscal cost 2 [SMOKE TEST 2026-06-03]

AI TrackEnactedqwen3.6:27b2026-06-03
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
federal_revenue
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

smoke 2

Details

Epoch: 123

Domain: financial

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $1.50B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$0.08B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$0.04B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via federal_revenue
  • −$0.04B → direct_program_spending (Direct Program Expenses) via budgetary_balance
  • −$0.01B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via federal_revenue
  • −$0.01B → transfers_to_provinces (Major Transfers to Provinces/Territories) via budgetary_balance

Causal effects: 345 downstream variables affected (318 immediate)

Divergence after: 180.033

Variable changes

  • federal_revenue: {"new":495.8,"old":495.5}

Proposed policy move

federal_revenue: 495.5 → 495.8 (▲ 0.3)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 7 / against 2)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Test fiscal cost 2 [SMOKE TEST 2026-06-03] · impact
confidence 50 · impact 180
Impact assessment for Test fiscal cost 2 [SMOKE TEST 2026-06-03] — Financial. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Federal Revenue: 495.5 → 495.8 (▲ +0.30) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 345 downstream effects (318 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 180.0, over a short time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Test fiscal cost 2 [SMOKE TEST 2026-06-03] · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 2
Fiscal analysis for Test fiscal cost 2 [SMOKE TEST 2026-06-03]. Estimated fiscal cost: $1.50B over a short horizon. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 123 · 345 modelled effects · divergence 180.033.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.