New US tariffs threaten Canadian export competitiveness, particularly in manufacturing. By establishing a targeted contingency fund to subsidize supply-chain diversification and legal defense for exporters, Canada can signal stability to foreign investors, preventing capital flight and encouraging new investments in non-US markets. This mitigates the immediate shock to GDP while preserving long-term investment inflows.

Epoch: 123

Domain: trade

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.35B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$0.00B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Causal effects: 2 downstream variables affected (0 immediate)

Divergence after: 184.907

Variable changes

• fdi_inflows: {"new":72,"old":68.5}