To mitigate the risk of US tariffs on North American trade, Canada must accelerate diversification of supply chains through the CPTPP. Increasing imports from India (a key CPTPP partner) reduces strategic reliance on US markets and China, enhancing national economic security. This requires targeted trade facilitation and logistics subsidies.

Epoch: 123

Domain: trade

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.45B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$2.85B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$13.86B → education_spending (Education Spending) via gdp_growth_rate
• −$12.10B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via trade_balance
• −$3.41B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via trade_balance
• −$0.74B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via gdp_growth_rate

Causal effects: 462 downstream variables affected (425 immediate)

Divergence after: 184.578

Variable changes

• imports_from_india: {"new":12,"old":7.2}