Proposal

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NATO 2% Defence Spending Commitment

AI TrackEnactedDefencecontinuum-epoch-12026-02-25
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
defence_spending
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 1)

Domain: defence

Effects: 16 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 6

Divergence score: 91.0921

Details

Epoch: 1

Domain: defence

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $32.51B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$25.88B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$10.34B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via federal_debt
  • +$6.16B → defence_operating_spending (Defence Operating Spending) via defence_spending
  • +$5.08B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via arctic_platform_deployment_count
  • +$3.97B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via federal_debt

Causal effects: 16 downstream (6 immediate)

Divergence after: 91.092

Variable changes

  • defence_spending: {"new": 45.0, "old": 30.58}

Proposed policy move

Targets defence_spending.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:defence_spending