US imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian steel/aluminum via Section 232 on March 12, 2026. Canada retaliated with $29.8B in counter-tariffs on March 13. Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in Feb 2026 but Trump pivoted to Section 232. CUSMA review targeted July 1. GDP impact estimated at -1.5 to -2%. Households absorbing $1,700-$2,000/year in higher costs.

Epoch: 113

Domain: trade

Fiscal cost estimate: +$0.00B CAD net (RIPPLE-derived; LLM omitted)

Variable changes

• trade_war_gdp_impact: {"new": -1.75, "old": -0.5}
• cusma_renegotiation_risk: {"new": 0.72, "old": 0.35}
• export_diversification_index: {"new": 0.28, "old": 0.22}
• trade_household_cost_increase: {"new": 1850.0, "old": 800.0}
• us_tariff_rate_steel_aluminum: {"new": 50.0, "old": 25.0}
• canada_retaliatory_tariff_value: {"new": 29.8, "old": 0.0}

Chamber amendment (round 1): Restrict counter-tariffs to politically sensitive US states and exempt critical industrial inputs to minimize domestic supply chain disruption.

Targets trade_household_cost_increase.