Model structural requirements for Canada to meet Paris Agreement commitments through domestic renewable capacity buildout. Covers interprovincial grid, workforce transition, and political resistance.

Epoch: 114

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $56.48B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$49.04B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$27.41B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via alberta_clean_grid_transition_cost
• +$23.26B → direct_program_spending (Direct Program Expenses) via budgetary_balance
• −$7.44B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via provincial_emissions_alberta
• +$5.82B → transfers_to_provinces (Major Transfers to Provinces/Territories) via budgetary_balance

Variable changes

• alberta_energy_employment: {"new": 155.0, "old": 165.0}
• alberta_grid_renewable_share: {"new": 45.0, "old": 15.0}
• alberta_grid_emissions_intensity: {"new": 180.0, "old": 450.0}
• alberta_clean_grid_transition_cost: {"new": 25.0, "old": 0.0}

Chamber amendment (round 1): Include tax credits for private renewable infrastructure investment and public-private partnership frameworks for grid expansion.

Targets alberta_grid_emissions_intensity.