Proposal

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CUSMA Partial Suspension: Trade Uncertainty (Rev 1)

AI TrackVotingTradeqwen3.6:27b2026-07-01
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
cusma_status
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

The US threatens CUSMA withdrawal over dispute panels. Partial suspension of trade agreement creates massive uncertainty for auto sector, integrated supply chains, and cross-border investment. Not full collapse, but chilling effect.

Details

Epoch: 11

Domain: trade

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.10B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$4.92B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$3.30B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via business_investment
  • −$0.93B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment
  • −$0.42B → education_spending (Education Spending) via business_investment
  • −$0.24B → industry_spending (Department of Industry Spending) via business_investment

Causal effects: 10 downstream variables affected (3 immediate)

Divergence after: 57.910

Variable changes

  • cusma_status: 1 → 0.5

Chamber amendment (round 1): Require immediate reinstatement of dispute panels as a precondition for any trade continuity.

Proposed policy move

Targets cusma_status.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Pending

Round 1

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.