Immigration, temporary residents, and natural growth push Canada past 42.5 million. Higher population increases per-capita strain on healthcare (CHT), housing demand, and social transfers. A demographic tailwind for GDP but headwind for services.

Epoch: 11

Domain: demographics

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.48B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$0.48B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$0.40B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via total_population
• +$0.08B → canada_social_transfer (Canada Social Transfer (CST)) via total_population

Causal effects: 4 downstream variables affected (1 immediate)

Divergence after: 57.972

Variable changes

• total_population: 41.5 → 42.5

Chamber amendment (round 1): Mandate 15% of demographic adjustment funding specifically for Indigenous and Northern infrastructure.

Targets total_population.