Proposal

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Wage-Price Spiral: Labour Market Overheating (Rev 1)

AI TrackVotingEconomyqwen3.6:27b2026-07-01
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
wage_growth
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

With unemployment at 3.56% (well below NAIRU), employers are bidding up wages. Wage growth accelerates to 5.5%, boosting income tax revenue and EI premiums but feeding directly into inflation. The BoC faces a dilemma: tighten and kill growth, or tolerate above-target inflation.

Details

Epoch: 11

Domain: economic

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $71.61B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$68.91B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$70.26B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via inflation_rate
  • +$1.24B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via inflation_rate
  • +$0.12B → canada_social_transfer (Canada Social Transfer (CST)) via inflation_rate

Causal effects: 6 downstream variables affected (4 immediate)

Divergence after: 58.417

Variable changes

  • wage_growth: 3.81 → 5.5

Chamber amendment (round 1): Redirect $71.61B to a Green Skills Fund to expand the labor pool in renewable energy sectors.

Proposed policy move

Targets wage_growth.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Pending

Round 1

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.