Combined effect of solar, wind, and hydro expansion pushes renewable share from 18% to 25% of total energy and electricity from 67% to 78% renewable. Grid emissions intensity falls, carbon emissions drop, and clean electricity exports to the US increase.

Epoch: 16

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $15.32B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$14.24B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$10.27B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via gdp_alberta
• +$2.79B → transfers_to_persons (Major Transfers to Persons) via unemployment_rate
• −$1.09B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via carbon_emissions
• +$0.99B → defense_spending (Defence Spending (DND)) via renewable_energy_share

Causal effects: 8 downstream variables affected (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 60.111

Variable changes

• renewable_energy_share: 18 → 25
• renewable_electricity_pct: 67 → 78

Chamber amendment (round 1): Mandate 30% of project contracts for rural suppliers and include a rural grid resilience fund.

Targets renewable_electricity_pct.