Baby boomers push seniors from 19% to 22.5% of population by 2030. Not a policy choice but a demographic reality. Chain: senior_pct -> healthcare_spending (delay 1) -> wait_times/infant_mortality AND long_term_care_spending (delay 1). The fiscal squeeze students need to understand.

Epoch: 21

Domain: demographics

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $45.88B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$45.00B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$27.41B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via senior_population_pct
• +$12.16B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via healthcare_spending
• +$3.41B → long_term_care_spending (Long-term Care Spending) via senior_population_pct
• +$2.30B → hospital_spending (Hospital Services Spending) via healthcare_spending

Causal effects: 2 downstream variables affected (0 immediate)

Divergence after: 60.032

Variable changes

• senior_population_pct: 19 → 22.5

Chamber amendment (round 1): Include specific funding allocations for rural long-term care facilities and telehealth expansion.

Targets senior_population_pct.