Five fiscal micro-levers that demonstrate budget plumbing: import_volume -> customs_duties; seasonal_employment -> EI benefits; transfers_to_provinces -> budgetary_balance; carbon_pricing -> federal_revenues; population_growth -> housing_supply_gap. Students see how fiscal inputs and outputs connect through the federal budget.

Epoch: 51

Domain: fiscal_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $19.62B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$9.46B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• −$27.95B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
• +$6.50B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via transfers_to_provinces
• +$5.52B → direct_program_spending (Direct Program Expenses) via budgetary_balance
• +$2.70B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via quebec_federal_transfers

Causal effects: 49 downstream variables affected (35 immediate)

Divergence after: 1,508.618

Variable changes

• import_volume: 100 → 115
• seasonal_employment: 8.5 → 9.5
• population_growth_rate: 3.2 → 2.8
• transfers_to_provinces: 110.8 → 120
• carbon_pricing_revenues: 6.2 → 9

Chamber amendment (round 1): Ensure that the 2.8% population growth target includes specific quotas for rural and small-town immigration streams.

Targets import_volume.