Canada begins ramping defence spending toward the Hague Summit 5% GDP target. Year 1 increase from $30.58B to $45B (1.37% to ~2.0% GDP). Capital spending increases proportionally. At 75% foreign outflow, most of the increase flows to US defence contractors.

Epoch: 91

Domain: defence

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $32.56B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$25.93B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$10.34B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via federal_debt
• +$6.16B → defence_operating_spending (Defence Operating Spending) via defence_spending
• +$5.08B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via arctic_platform_deployment_count
• +$3.97B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via federal_debt

Causal effects: 206 downstream variables affected (157 immediate)

Divergence after: 143.534

Variable changes

• defense_gdp_pct: 1.37 → 1.41
• nato_target_gap: 128.57 → 114.15
• defence_spending: 30.58 → 45
• nato_contribution_pct: 1.37 → 1.41
• defence_capital_spending: 10.6 → 15.6
• defence_capital_outflow_foreign: 7.95 → 11.7
• defence_capital_retained_domestic: 2.65 → 3.9

Chamber amendment (round 1): Mandate that 40% of capital spending be awarded to Canadian defence manufacturers.

Targets nato_target_gap.