Norway and Canada both discovered major petroleum wealth in the 1970s. Norway holds ~$1.7T USD for 5.4M citizens. Canada has a federal sovereign wealth fund balance of exactly $0. Alberta's Heritage Fund has $23.4B instead of an estimated $400B+ if Norway-style discipline had been applied.

Epoch: 100

Domain: fiscal_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $8.00B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$85.75B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$39.15B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via swf_annual_contribution_pct
• +$33.23B → direct_program_spending (Direct Program Expenses) via budgetary_balance
• +$8.31B → transfers_to_provinces (Major Transfers to Provinces/Territories) via budgetary_balance
• +$5.07B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues

Causal effects: 3 downstream variables affected (1 immediate)

Divergence after: 0.300

Variable changes

• swf_annual_contribution_pct: 0 → 40
• swf_annual_investment_return: 0 → 0.8
• federal_sovereign_wealth_fund_balance: 0 → 21

Chamber amendment (round 1): Mandate that 15% of annual SWF dividends be allocated directly to rural infrastructure and community resilience grants.

Targets swf_annual_contribution_pct.