Canada mines lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earth elements, and uranium — and exports almost all of it as raw concentrate. China processes ~85% of global REEs regardless of origin. Canada's rare earth value capture ratio of 1.1 can reach 4.0-5.0 within 8 years. Critical minerals processing revenue of $1.2B/year should be $12-18B/year.

Epoch: 100

Domain: economic

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $2.20B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$667.93B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths

• +$606.38B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
• +$22.79B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via corporate_tax_revenue
• +$15.52B → defense_spending (Defence Spending (DND)) via employment_rate
• +$15.42B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth

Causal effects: 4 downstream variables affected (1 immediate)

Divergence after: 0.250

Variable changes

• rare_earth_value_capture_ratio: 1.1 → 4.2
• critical_minerals_processing_revenue: 1.2 → 11
• ev_battery_supply_chain_canadian_content: 8 → 40
• critical_mineral_domestic_processing_share: 5 → 30

Chamber amendment (round 1): Mandate 20% of processing plant construction contracts go to firms headquartered in rural or small-town constituencies.

Targets ev_battery_supply_chain_canadian_content.