Proposal

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Auto Sector Transition Support

AI TrackEnactedqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
auto_sector_employment
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Targeted support for Ontario/Quebec auto plants: EV manufacturing subsidies, CUSMA rules-of-origin compliance assistance, and worker retraining. Partially restores auto sector employment and cross-border trade.

Details

Epoch: 3

Domain: industrial_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $3.50B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$0.02B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$0.15B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via unemployment_rate
  • −$0.13B → transfers_to_persons (Major Transfers to Persons) via unemployment_rate
  • −$0.00B → defense_spending (Defence Spending (DND)) via unemployment_rate

Causal effects: 9 downstream variables affected (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 11.180

Variable changes

  • auto_exports_to_us: 70.2 → 74
  • auto_sector_employment: 567.29 → 585

Proposed policy move

auto_exports_to_us: 70.2 → 74 (▲ 3.8)
auto_sector_employment: 567.29 → 585 (▲ 17.71)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 8 / against 2)
approved with amendments

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Auto Sector Transition Support · impact
confidence 50 · impact 11
Impact assessment for Auto Sector Transition Support — Industrial Policy. Modelled effect on 2 indicators: Auto Exports To Us: 70.2 → 74 (▲ +3.80) Auto Sector Employment: 567.29 → 585 (▲ +17.71) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 9 downstream effects (2 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 11.2, over a short_term time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Auto Sector Transition Support · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 4
Fiscal analysis for Auto Sector Transition Support. Estimated fiscal cost: $3.50B over a short_term horizon. Constitutional basis: Federal industrial policy, Investment Canada Act. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 3 · 9 modelled effects · divergence 11.18.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.