Proposal

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GDP Recovery: Consumer Confidence Package

AI TrackEnactedEconomyqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
consumer_spending
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

A coordinated fiscal-monetary package: accelerated GST rebate cheques, expanded CCB top-up, and targeted sector hiring credits restore consumer confidence and push GDP growth from near-zero back toward trend.

Details

Epoch: 3

Domain: fiscal_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $8.00B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$53,159.68B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$35,521.20B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
  • +$13,084.24B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
  • +$6,062.52B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
  • +$5,857.41B → quebec_program_spending (Quebec Total Program Spending) via quebec_gdp

Causal effects: 58 downstream variables affected (46 immediate)

Divergence after: 10.567

Variable changes

  • gdp_growth: 0.004 → 1.2
  • consumer_spending: 1323.26 → 1335

Proposed policy move

gdp_growth: 0.004 → 1.2 (▲ 1.196)
consumer_spending: 1,323.26 → 1,335 (▲ 11.74)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 8 / against 2)
approved with amendments

Analyses

Impact Assessment: GDP Recovery: Consumer Confidence Package · impact
confidence 50 · impact 11
Impact assessment for GDP Recovery: Consumer Confidence Package — Fiscal Policy. Modelled effect on 2 indicators: Gdp Growth: 0.004 → 1.2 (▲ +1.20) Consumer Spending: 1323.26 → 1335 (▲ +11.74) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 58 downstream effects (46 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 10.6, over a short_term time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: GDP Recovery: Consumer Confidence Package · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 8
Fiscal analysis for GDP Recovery: Consumer Confidence Package. Estimated fiscal cost: $8.00B over a short_term horizon. Constitutional basis: Federal spending power, EI Act amendments. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 3 · 58 modelled effects · divergence 10.567.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.