Proposal

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Wage-Price Spiral: Labour Market Overheating

AI TrackEnactedEconomyqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
wage_growth
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

With unemployment at 3.56% (well below NAIRU), employers are bidding up wages. Wage growth accelerates to 5.5%, boosting income tax revenue and EI premiums but feeding directly into inflation. The BoC faces a dilemma: tighten and kill growth, or tolerate above-target inflation.

Details

Epoch: 11

Domain: economic

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $71.61B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$68.91B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$70.26B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via inflation_rate
  • +$1.24B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via inflation_rate
  • +$0.12B → canada_social_transfer (Canada Social Transfer (CST)) via inflation_rate

Causal effects: 6 downstream variables affected (4 immediate)

Divergence after: 58.417

Variable changes

  • wage_growth: 3.81 → 5.5

Proposed policy move

wage_growth: 3.81 → 5.5 (▲ 1.69)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 1 / against 9)
defeated — revising

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Wage-Price Spiral: Labour Market Overheating · impact
confidence 50 · impact 58
Impact assessment for Wage-Price Spiral: Labour Market Overheating — Economic. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Wage Growth: 3.81 → 5.5 (▲ +1.69) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 6 downstream effects (4 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 58.4, over a immediate time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Wage-Price Spiral: Labour Market Overheating · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 72
Fiscal analysis for Wage-Price Spiral: Labour Market Overheating. Estimated fiscal cost: $71.61B over a immediate horizon. Constitutional basis: Market dynamics — not a policy choice but an economic consequence. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 11 · 6 modelled effects · divergence 58.417.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.