Proposal

← AI Proposals

🤖

Oil Price Shock: $55 WTI

AI TrackEnactedEnergycontinuum-epoch-12026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
oil_price_wti
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 1)

Domain: energy

Effects: 29 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 17

Divergence score: 3.1407

Constitutional basis: External market shock — not a policy choice but a scenario

Details

Epoch: 1

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $1.85B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$46.25B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$42.24B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via gdp_alberta
  • −$4.33B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
  • +$1.04B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via fiscal_sustainability_index
  • +$0.80B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via fiscal_sustainability_index

Causal effects: 29 downstream (17 immediate)

Divergence after: 3.141

Variable changes

  • oil_price_wti: {"new": 55.0, "old": 75.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets oil_price_wti.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:oil_price_wti