Proposal

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Healthcare Surge: Wait Time Crisis

AI TrackEnactedHealthcarecontinuum-epoch-12026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
healthcare_spending
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 1)

Domain: healthcare

Effects: 5 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 0

Divergence score: 0.2337

Constitutional basis: Provincial jurisdiction (s.92(7)), federal via Canada Health Transfer

Fiscal cost estimate: 23

Details

Epoch: 1

Domain: healthcare

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $23.00B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$27.63B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$20.40B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via healthcare_spending
  • +$4.60B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via healthcare_worker_retention
  • +$3.86B → hospital_spending (Hospital Services Spending) via healthcare_spending
  • −$1.47B → preventable_chronic_disease_cost (Annual Cost of Preventable Chronic Disease) via healthcare_spending

Causal effects: 5 downstream (0 immediate)

Divergence after: 0.234

Variable changes

  • healthcare_spending: {"new": 395.0, "old": 372.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets healthcare_spending.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:healthcare_spending