Proposal

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GDP Growth Acceleration: 3.2%

AI TrackEnactedEconomyqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
gdp_growth
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

The mother of all levers: 20 outgoing edges. Strong consumer confidence, tech investment, and resource exports push GDP growth to 3.2%. Chain: gdp_growth -> ALL provincial GDPs (immediate, 9 provinces) + nominal_gdp (immediate) + business_investment (+2.0, d1) + employment_rate (+0.4, d1) + federal_revenues (d1) + GST (d1) + CHT (d1) + corporate_tax (d2) + personal_income_tax (d2) + inflation (d2) + EI_benefits (-, d1). One lever, twenty ripples.

Details

Epoch: 33

Domain: economic

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $109.73B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$93.13B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$62.23B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via employment_rate
  • +$22.92B → canada_health_transfer (Canada Health Transfer (CHT)) via gdp_growth
  • +$10.62B → defence_spending (Defence Spending) via federal_revenues
  • +$10.26B → quebec_program_spending (Quebec Total Program Spending) via quebec_gdp

Causal effects: 54 downstream variables affected (42 immediate)

Divergence after: 63.311

Variable changes

  • gdp_growth: 2.1 → 3.2

Proposed policy move

gdp_growth: 2.1 → 3.2 (▲ 1.1)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 7 / against 3)
approved with amendments

Analyses

Impact Assessment: GDP Growth Acceleration: 3.2% · impact
confidence 50 · impact 63
Impact assessment for GDP Growth Acceleration: 3.2% — Economic. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Gdp Growth: 2.1 → 3.2 (▲ +1.10) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 54 downstream effects (42 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 63.3, over a short_term time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: GDP Growth Acceleration: 3.2% · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 110
Fiscal analysis for GDP Growth Acceleration: 3.2%. Estimated fiscal cost: $109.73B over a short_term horizon. Constitutional basis: Market outcome — aggregate economic performance. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 33 · 54 modelled effects · divergence 63.311.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.