Proposal

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BoC Easing Cycle: 2.25%

AI TrackEnactedEconomyqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
boc_overnight_rate
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Bank of Canada cuts 75bp as inflation normalizes, easing monetary conditions. Chain: boc_overnight_rate -> prime_rate (+1.0, immediate) + corra_rate (+0.95, immediate) + boc_fed_spread (immediate) + goc_10y_rate (+0.35, d1) + mortgage_rate_5yr (+0.3, d1) -> housing market + business_investment (+2.0, d2) + consumer_spending (+0.75, d2). The transmission mechanism students need to see.

Details

Epoch: 33

Domain: monetary_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $251.45B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$240.65B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$247.50B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via boc_overnight_rate
  • −$6.26B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via federal_debt
  • −$5.23B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via healthcare_system_capacity
  • +$5.20B → education_spending (Education Spending) via gdp_growth_rate

Causal effects: 31 downstream variables affected (18 immediate)

Divergence after: 220.453

Variable changes

  • boc_overnight_rate: 3 → 2.25

Proposed policy move

boc_overnight_rate: 3 → 2.25 (▼ -0.75)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 8 / against 2)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: BoC Easing Cycle: 2.25% · impact
confidence 50 · impact 220
Impact assessment for BoC Easing Cycle: 2.25% — Monetary Policy. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Boc Overnight Rate: 3 → 2.25 (▼ -0.75) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 31 downstream effects (18 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 220.5, over a immediate time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: BoC Easing Cycle: 2.25% · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 251
Fiscal analysis for BoC Easing Cycle: 2.25%. Estimated fiscal cost: $251.45B over a immediate horizon. Constitutional basis: Bank of Canada Act, monetary policy independence. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 33 · 31 modelled effects · divergence 220.453.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.