Proposal

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Equalization Expansion: $30B

AI TrackEnactedqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
equalization_payments
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Formula revision increases equalization by $3.8B to recipient provinces. Chain: equalization_payments -> quebec_own_source_revenue (+0.15, immediate) + manitoba_other_revenue (+0.10, immediate) + new_brunswick_other_revenue (+0.08, immediate) + nova_scotia_other_revenue (+0.08, immediate) + pei_own_source_revenue (+0.03, immediate). Five provinces boosted simultaneously — fiscal federalism in one lever.

Details

Epoch: 33

Domain: fiscal_federalism

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $3.80B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$0.00B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Causal effects: 5 downstream variables affected (5 immediate)

Divergence after: 220.448

Variable changes

  • equalization_payments: 26.2 → 30

Proposed policy move

equalization_payments: 26.2 → 30 (▲ 3.8)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 7 / against 3)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Equalization Expansion: $30B · impact
confidence 50 · impact 220
Impact assessment for Equalization Expansion: $30B — Fiscal Federalism. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Equalization Payments: 26.2 → 30 (▲ +3.80) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 5 downstream effects (5 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 220.4, over a immediate time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Equalization Expansion: $30B · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 4
Fiscal analysis for Equalization Expansion: $30B. Estimated fiscal cost: $3.80B over a immediate horizon. Constitutional basis: Constitution Act 1982 s.36(2), Federal-Provincial Fiscal Arrangements Act. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 33 · 5 modelled effects · divergence 220.448.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.