Proposal

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Private Healthcare Creep: 35%

AI TrackEnactedHealthcareqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
private_healthcare_share
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Provincial experiments with private surgical clinics and diagnostic centres push private share to 35%. The controversial lever: private_healthcare_share -> clinician_migration_rate (+0.30, d2) — doctors move to higher-paying private sector. Also: healthcare_workforce_capacity (-0.20, immediate) + healthcare_wait_times (-0.15, d4). Shorter private waits but public workforce drain.

Details

Epoch: 39

Domain: healthcare

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $6.48B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$6.47B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$5.58B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via pharmacare_coverage_gap_population
  • +$0.90B → employer_drug_benefit_cost (Annual Employer Drug Benefit Expenditure) via private_healthcare_share
  • −$0.01B → pharmacare_federal_budget_remaining (Pharmacare Federal Budget Remaining) via pharmacare_coverage_gap_population

Causal effects: 4 downstream variables affected (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 301.139

Variable changes

  • private_healthcare_share: 30 → 35

Proposed policy move

private_healthcare_share: 30 → 35 (▲ 5)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 3 / against 6)
defeated — revising

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Private Healthcare Creep: 35% · impact
confidence 50 · impact 301
Impact assessment for Private Healthcare Creep: 35% — Healthcare. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Private Healthcare Share: 30 → 35 (▲ +5.00) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 4 downstream effects (2 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 301.1, over a medium_term time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Private Healthcare Creep: 35% · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 6
Fiscal analysis for Private Healthcare Creep: 35%. Estimated fiscal cost: $6.48B over a medium_term horizon. Constitutional basis: Provincial healthcare jurisdiction (s.92), Canada Health Act tension. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 39 · 4 modelled effects · divergence 301.139.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.