Proposal

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Social Safety Net Expansion: $140B

AI TrackEnactedqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
social_services_spending
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

A $15B increase in social services: child welfare, disability support, income assistance, community programs. Chain: social_services_spending -> poverty_rate (-0.01, d4) -> crime_rate (+0.30, d4). A 2-step chain: social spending reduces poverty, lower poverty reduces crime. Students trace the indirect mechanism.

Details

Epoch: 39

Domain: social_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $15.00B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$0.30B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$0.40B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via poverty_rate
  • −$0.06B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via crime_rate
  • −$0.03B → education_spending (Education Spending) via crime_rate
  • −$0.02B → public_safety_spending (Public Safety Spending) via crime_rate

Causal effects: 1 downstream variables affected (0 immediate)

Divergence after: 301.396

Variable changes

  • social_services_spending: 125 → 140

Proposed policy move

social_services_spending: 125 → 140 (▲ 15)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 8 / against 2)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Social Safety Net Expansion: $140B · impact
confidence 50 · impact 301
Impact assessment for Social Safety Net Expansion: $140B — Social Policy. Modelled effect on 1 indicator: Social Services Spending: 125 → 140 (▲ +15.00) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 1 downstream effect (0 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 301.4, over a medium_term time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Social Safety Net Expansion: $140B · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 15
Fiscal analysis for Social Safety Net Expansion: $140B. Estimated fiscal cost: $15.00B over a medium_term horizon. Constitutional basis: Provincial social services (s.92(7)), federal social transfers. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 39 · 1 modelled effects · divergence 301.396.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.