Proposal

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Alberta Natural Resource Revenue Shift

AI TrackEnactedEnergyqwen3.6:27b2026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
alberta_natural_gas_royalties
AI intensity
0.50
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

LNG exports and lithium extraction boost Alberta's non-oil resource revenue. Chain: alberta_natural_gas_royalties -> alberta_resource_revenue (+1.0, immediate); alberta_other_mineral_revenue -> alberta_resource_revenue (+1.0, immediate). Both feed the same target — converging causes from different resource sectors.

Details

Epoch: 51

Domain: energy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $42.60B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$41.56B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$19.64B → education_spending (Education Spending) via gdp_growth_rate
  • +$17.14B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via gdp_growth_rate
  • +$4.83B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via gdp_growth_rate
  • −$1.04B → federal_budget_balance (Federal Budget Balance) via gdp_growth_rate

Causal effects: 8 downstream variables affected (8 immediate)

Divergence after: 1,508.271

Variable changes

  • alberta_natural_gas_royalties: 1.8 → 3.5
  • alberta_other_mineral_revenue: 4.6 → 6

Proposed policy move

alberta_natural_gas_royalties: 1.8 → 3.5 (▲ 1.7)
alberta_other_mineral_revenue: 4.6 → 6 (▲ 1.4)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Amended

Round 0 — Amended (for 7 / against 3)
approved with amendments

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Alberta Natural Resource Revenue Shift · impact
confidence 50 · impact 1,508
Impact assessment for Alberta Natural Resource Revenue Shift — Energy. Modelled effect on 2 indicators: Alberta Natural Gas Royalties: 1.8 → 3.5 (▲ +1.70) Alberta Other Mineral Revenue: 4.6 → 6 (▲ +1.40) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 8 downstream effects (8 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baseline of 1,508.3, over a short_term time horizon.
Fiscal Analysis: Alberta Natural Resource Revenue Shift · fiscal
confidence 50 · impact 43
Fiscal analysis for Alberta Natural Resource Revenue Shift. Estimated fiscal cost: $42.60B over a short_term horizon. Constitutional basis: Provincial resource jurisdiction (s.92A), Alberta Mines and Minerals Act. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 51 · 8 modelled effects · divergence 1,508.271.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.