Proposal

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BoC Rate Hold: Inflation Targeting

AI TrackEnactedEconomycontinuum-epoch-32026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
goc_10y_rate
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 3)

Domain: monetary_policy

Effects: 14 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 6

Divergence score: 13.5819

Constitutional basis: Bank of Canada Act, independent monetary authority

Details

Epoch: 3

Domain: monetary_policy

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $18.51B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$230.33B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$215.40B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via inflation_rate
  • −$28.65B → budgetary_balance (Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)) via public_debt_charges
  • +$16.27B → direct_program_spending (Direct Program Expenses) via public_debt_charges
  • −$3.79B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via inflation_rate

Causal effects: 14 downstream (6 immediate)

Divergence after: 13.582

Variable changes

  • goc_10y_rate: {"new": 3.4, "old": 3.7}
  • inflation_rate: {"new": 3.2, "old": 4.02}

Proposed policy move

Targets goc_10y_rate.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:goc_10y_rate
  • RIPPLE:inflation_rate