Proposal

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Rental Housing Supply: Purpose-Built + Vacancy

AI TrackEnactedHousingqwen3.6:27b2026-02-27
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
housing_supply_gap
AI intensity
1.00
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Housing debates reached consensus on balancing affordability with climate resilience. Green Affordable Housing Fund and National Indigenous Housing Task Force were consensus proposals. Rental vacancy below 3% nationally indicates severe shortage. Purpose-built rental starts complement existing housing_starts proposals. Chain: purpose_built_rental_investment -> purpose_built_rental_starts (+0.30, d4), rental_starts -> rental_vacancy_rate (+0.15, d8).

Details

Epoch: 71

Domain: housing

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $3.00B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$1.52B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$1.16B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via housing_affordability
  • +$0.33B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via housing_affordability
  • +$0.04B → housing_spending (Housing Programs) via housing_affordability
  • −$0.02B → immigration_spending (Immigration & Citizenship) via housing_affordability

Causal effects: 6 downstream variables affected (3 immediate)

Divergence after: 109.665

Variable changes

  • housing_supply_gap: 2113849.36 → 1800000
  • housing_demand_index: 159.01 → 145
  • purpose_built_rental_starts: 47370.5 → 55000

Proposed policy move

housing_supply_gap: 2,113,849.36 → 1,800,000 (▼ -313,849.36)
housing_demand_index: 159.01 → 145 (▼ -14.01)
purpose_built_rental_starts: 47,370.5 → 55,000 (▲ 7,629.5)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 9 / against 1)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Rental Housing Supply: Purpose-Built + Vacancy · impact
confidence 100 · impact 110
Impact assessment for Rental Housing Supply: Purpose-Built + Vacancy — Housing. Modelled effect on 3 indicators: Housing Supply Gap: 2113849.36 → 1800000 (▼ -313849.36) Housing Demand Index: 159.01 → 145 (▼ -14.01) Purpose Built Rental Starts: 47370.5 → 55000 (▲ +7629.50) RIPPLE simulation: simulated across 6 downstream effects (3 immediate), post-enactment divergence from the real-Canada baselin
Fiscal Analysis: Rental Housing Supply: Purpose-Built + Vacancy · fiscal
confidence 100 · impact 3
Fiscal analysis for Rental Housing Supply: Purpose-Built + Vacancy. Estimated fiscal cost: $3.00B over a medium_term horizon. Constitutional basis: Federal NHS, CMHC mandate, provincial housing regulations. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 71 · 6 modelled effects · divergence 109.665.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.