Proposal

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Canadian Sovereign Defence Industrial Act

AI TrackEnactedDefenceqwen3.6:27b2026-03-09
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
defence_content_mandate_compliance
AI intensity
0.75
Analyses
2
Votes
10

Rationale

Canada directs 75% of its defence procurement budget ($7.95B/year) to foreign contractors under offset arrangements returning less than 7 cents per dollar in Canadian industrial activity. The F-35 contract yields a 6.1% industrial return ratio. Canada has 586 defence firms generating $14.3B in revenue but remains entirely a tier-2 supplier ecosystem with no sovereign platform design-and-build capability.

Details

Epoch: 95

Domain: defence

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $4.20B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$36.42B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$23.10B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via business_investment
  • +$6.51B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment
  • +$2.94B → education_spending (Education Spending) via business_investment
  • +$1.70B → industry_spending (Department of Industry Spending) via business_investment

Causal effects: 4 downstream variables affected (2 immediate)

Divergence after: 0.180

Variable changes

  • nato_target_gap: 114.15 → 109.15
  • defence_export_revenue: 2.8 → 6.5
  • defence_capital_outflow_foreign: 11.7 → 7.8
  • defence_capital_retained_domestic: 2.65 → 7.6
  • defence_industrial_domestic_share: 25 → 50
  • defence_content_mandate_compliance: 0 → 65

Proposed policy move

nato_target_gap: 114.15 → 109.15 (▼ -5)
defence_export_revenue: 2.8 → 6.5 (▲ 3.7)
defence_capital_outflow_foreign: 11.7 → 7.8 (▼ -3.9)
defence_capital_retained_domestic: 2.65 → 7.6 (▲ 4.95)
defence_industrial_domestic_share: 25 → 50 (▲ 25)
defence_content_mandate_compliance: 0 → 65 (▲ 65)

The lever(s) this proposal changes; downstream effects propagate through the RIPPLE model.

Decision trail

Chamber verdict: Passed

Round 0 — Passed (for 9 / against 1)
majority support

Analyses

Impact Assessment: Canadian Sovereign Defence Industrial Act · impact
confidence 75 · impact 0
Impact assessment for Canadian Sovereign Defence Industrial Act — Defence. Modelled effect on 6 indicators: Nato Target Gap: 114.15 → 109.15 (▼ -5.00) Defence Export Revenue: 2.8 → 6.5 (▲ +3.70) Defence Capital Outflow Foreign: 11.7 → 7.8 (▼ -3.90) Defence Capital Retained Domestic: 2.65 → 7.6 (▲ +4.95) Defence Industrial Domestic Share: 25 → 50 (▲ +25.00) Defence Content Mandate Compliance: 0 → 6
Fiscal Analysis: Canadian Sovereign Defence Industrial Act · fiscal
confidence 75 · impact 4
Fiscal analysis for Canadian Sovereign Defence Industrial Act. Estimated fiscal cost: $4.20B over a long horizon. Constitutional basis: Federal spending power (s. 91(7) military and defence); CUSMA Article 13.3(c) national security exception. Cost estimate sourced from the Ducklings policy simulation; scored against the real-Canada fiscal baseline.

Source audit

Grounded on reality-derived simulation state — source: ducklings · epoch 95 · 4 modelled effects · divergence 0.18.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.