Proposal

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CUSMA Partial Suspension: Trade Uncertainty

AI TrackEnactedTradecontinuum-epoch-112026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
cusma_status
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 11)

Domain: trade

Effects: 10 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 3

Divergence score: 57.9104

Constitutional basis: Federal treaty power, trade policy (s.91(2))

Details

Epoch: 11

Domain: trade

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $0.10B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): -$4.92B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; diverges)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • −$3.30B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via business_investment
  • −$0.93B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via business_investment
  • −$0.42B → education_spending (Education Spending) via business_investment
  • −$0.24B → industry_spending (Department of Industry Spending) via business_investment

Causal effects: 10 downstream (3 immediate)

Divergence after: 57.910

Variable changes

  • cusma_status: {"new": 0.5, "old": 1.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets cusma_status.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:cusma_status